How does China turn research strength into long-term global influence?

Welcome! It’s been a week since the dust has settled on the 2027 QS World University Rankings, but there are still plenty of stories. In this edition of the QS Midweek Brief, we look at China’s new phase of competition.

Outside of the rankings, meanwhile, demographic shifts threaten the long-term viability of universities. We focus on East Asia to ask what happens when universities run out of students.

Stay insightful,
Anton John Crace
Editor in Chief, QS Insights Magazine
QS Quacquarelli Symonds

China’s new phase of global competition

By Alice Wei, Lead Consultant, QS Quacquarelli Symonds

In brief

• Chinese universities surge in global rankings as the sector pivots from mass expansion to "high-quality development".
• Decades of research investment drive performance, yet international academic reputation still trails the rapid growth in scientific output.
• Future success hinges on building global networks and developing industry leaders rather than just chasing publication counts.

This year, Chinese universities have demonstrated strong overall upward momentum in the QS World University Rankings. Dozens of institutions have climbed steadily, while leading universities have further consolidated their positions among the world’s best.

This is a stage-by-stage reflection of China’s higher education system undergoing a strategic shift, driven by national priorities, from “scale expansion” towards “high-quality development”. Viewed against the broader policy backdrop of the integrated advancement of education, science and technology and talent, the rise of Chinese universities across indicators such as Academic Reputation, Research Performance, Employer Reputation, Global Engagement and Sustainability clearly reveals both the period in which policy dividends are becoming visible and the pathways through which deeper reforms must now be pursued.

Research strength is rising faster than reputation

Among all evaluation dimensions, research is undoubtedly the most powerful driver of Chinese universities’ performance. This is the result of two decades of sustained, high-intensity investment in basic research, interdisciplinary fields and frontier technologies.

As the main force in basic research, Chinese universities have achieved exponential growth in high-quality output and citations per faculty ratio, supported by major national projects and large-scale research platforms. In recent years, China has also actively advanced the Strong Foundation Plan, intensified efforts to tackle key and core technologies, and pursued strategies to overcome “bottleneck” constraints.

Together, these measures demonstrate a clear policy direction: concentrating resources on major national strategic needs and the frontiers of science and technology. The evidence shows that this strategy has already borne substantial fruit, with the dividends of earlier policy investment now fully emerging.

As research capacity breaks through, the significant improvement in international academic reputation has become an inevitable by-product. However, the data also shows that the increase in international academic reputation still lags behind research performance.

This “time lag” reflects the way academic influence is built: hard scientific outputs can enable institutions to catch up or even overtake on certain indicators in the short term, but global academic recognition, the formation of schools of thought and the establishment of academic discourse power require long-term accumulation.

As China’s education evaluation reform continues to move beyond the “five-only” approach, Chinese universities are shifting from pursuing publication volume to solving substantive scientific problems. This substantive transition is the reservoir from which a future breakthrough in international reputation may emerge.

Employer confidence is growing, but graduate outcomes show a deeper challenge

The widespread rise in employer reputation reflects the policy effectiveness of China’s efforts to integrate industry and education and to promote innovation and entrepreneurship education. In response to the rapid development of new quality productive forces, universities have proactively adjusted their disciplinary and programme structures, cultivating large numbers of interdisciplinary graduates who are well aligned with the needs of digital transformation. These graduates are gaining broad recognition from both global and domestic employers.

However, the mismatch between strong employer perceptions and graduate outcomes — such as global alumni impact and employment rates — reveals a deeper structural challenge facing higher education. In the current policy context, where promoting youth employment, especially employment for university graduates, has been placed in an increasingly prominent position, this mismatch suggests that Chinese universities have an advantage in producing high-quality “executors”, but still have room to grow in cultivating “breakthrough-makers” who can lead industry transformation and innovate across boundaries.

In addition, pressure on faculty-student ratios at some institutions has constrained, to some extent, the refinement and personalisation of higher education. Turning “excellent employees welcomed by employers” into “industry leaders with a global outlook” will require long-term cultivation and considerable policy patience.

International engagement and sustainability will shape the next frontier

Chinese universities still have room for improvement in international collaboration, and in the proportions of international students and international faculty. This aligns with China’s current policy emphasis on expanding high-level opening-up in education.

The data shows that the breadth of China’s international collaboration remains relatively limited, often confined to particular areas of disciplinary strength or a small number of established partners. Although Chinese universities now possess world-class research facilities and funding capacity, attracting leading global talent and high-quality international students requires not only “hard support”, but also an open, inclusive and convenient “soft environment”.

China is also actively promoting a two-way model of international engagement, combining efforts to “bring in” global expertise with initiatives that enable Chinese institutions to “go global”.

On the one hand, through the Belt and Road Initiative, universities are establishing overseas joint campuses, international joint laboratories, and collaborative platforms that connect industry, academia, research and application in partner countries.

On the other, China is attracting overseas institutions to develop transnational education partnerships within the country. Together, these efforts are not only expanding the reach of international collaboration and diversifying international student communities, but also reshaping a new global landscape for educational cooperation with distinctive Chinese characteristics.

Similarly, the general decline in sustainability performance exposes the insufficient attention previously given within evaluation systems to softer indicators such as ESG — environmental, social and governance factors. As the “dual carbon” strategy becomes fully embedded in the wider socio-economic cycle, the green transformation of higher education is no longer decorative or peripheral.

Deeply integrating sustainable campus governance into evaluation standards has become an essential task for Chinese universities as they align with the emerging global paradigm for higher education.

From targeted gains to strategic renewal

The overall rise of Chinese universities in global rankings is an objective reflection of more than a decade of resource investment and strategic focus. However, in the face of the urgent demands of domestic industrial upgrading and the evolution of global rules, the future point of breakthrough will no longer lie in isolated advances in individual indicators or in the simple accumulation of research outputs. Instead, it will depend on the stitching together of a stronger internal ecosystem.

To sustain this momentum, institutions should use Belt and Road education partnerships and practical transnational collaboration to expand their international networks, strengthen the soft environment for global engagement, and embed sustainability within core evaluation systems.

At the same time, sustained policy patience will be essential to building global reputation over the long term, cultivating alumni culture and developing future leaders, thereby enhancing graduates’ international competitiveness and influence from the source.

The next stage of high-quality development will therefore be defined less by the pursuit of short-term ranking gains than by the continuous optimisation and deepening of strategic priorities. This is not a sprint that can be completed overnight, but a systemic endeavour that will test strategic resolve. Those that advance steadily and pragmatically will be better placed to establish a firmer and more durable position within the diverse global higher education landscape, while generating more far-reaching and substantive impact.

Alice Wei is a Lead Consultant who has supported universities worldwide to strengthen institutional performance and enhance global reputation. Her expertise in navigating higher education’s complexities, alongside a commitment to global engagement, has helped institutions improve academic standing, embed data-informed decision-making, and succeed in an increasingly competitive international environment.

When universities run out of students

By Gauri Kohli

In brief

• Falling birth rates in East Asia force a shift from expansion to contraction, threatening university survival.
• Smaller private institutions face closure, while elite universities pivot to aggressive international recruitment and English-taught programs.
• Institutions must align with workforce needs and global talent strategies to remain competitive amid demographic decline.

 In parts of East Asia, the challenge facing universities is no longer how to accommodate growing numbers of students. It is whether enough students will exist to fill their classrooms at all.

Falling birth rates and ageing populations are shrinking the pool of university-age students across Japan and South Korea, while China is beginning to confront similar pressures. Universities are increasingly competing for enrolments, while countries such as India, Bangladesh and Nepal continue to experience growing demand for higher education.

From expansion to contraction

The demographic challenge is most common in Japan and South Korea, where declining birth rates have already begun to reshape higher education systems.

Jisun Jung, Associate Professor at the Faculty of Education at the University of Hong Kong, says the issue has emerged across East Asia at different speeds. Japan entered population ageing earlier than its neighbours, while South Korea now has one of the world's lowest fertility rates. China is also beginning to feel the effects of a decreasing population after decades of the one-child policy.

Universities are increasingly struggling to meet enrolment levels needed for stable operations. In response, governments and institutions are pursuing reforms designed to reduce excess capacity and improve sustainability.

“Governments have promoted university closures and mergers to phase out low-performing institutions, while universities have implemented reforms in their missions and curricula to attract more students,” says Professor Jung.

The challenge is particularly pronounced in countries with large private higher education sectors.

Akiyoshi Yonezawa, Professor at Tohoku University, notes that both Japan and South Korea rely heavily on tuition-dependent private institutions. As student numbers decline, many of these universities are being forced to downsize, merge or close altogether.

“The government is now supporting the smooth withdrawal of higher education institutions that are struggling to attract enough candidates,” he says.

Hiroshi Ota, Professor and Director of the Hitotsubashi University Global Education Program, argues that smaller private universities outside major metropolitan centres face the greatest risks. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong are all grappling with declining birth rates, ageing populations, and labour shortages.

“Because the number of 18-year-olds has been falling sharply, an increasing number of universities will be forced to close,” he says.

The effects extend beyond institutional finances. Professor Yonezawa warns that university closures could reduce educational opportunities in rural regions and smaller cities, while governments increasingly concentrate funding on elite research universities to strengthen science, technology and innovation.

“In these East Asian countries and regions, with the exception of Hong Kong, the high proportion of private institutions makes financial management extremely difficult if they cannot enrol enough students,” says Professor Ota.

China presents a more nuanced picture, as demand remains substantial despite emerging demographic pressures.

Ka Ho Mok, Provost and Vice President (Academic and Research) at The Hang Seng University of Hong Kong, argues that although declining birth rates will eventually affect admissions, “in the coming five years, China will remain one of the countries in the world to supply students to go for study abroad”.

The race for international talent

As domestic enrolments decline, internationalisation is increasingly becoming a strategic necessity.

Japan’s international student population surpassed 400,000 in 2025, reaching a government target eight years ahead of schedule. According to the Immigration Services Agency, the country hosted 435,200 international students in June 2025, highlighting the scale of its internationalisation efforts.

South Korea has adopted a similar approach through its “Study Korea 300K” initiative, which aims to attract 300,000 international students by 2027 to help address a shrinking school-age population and strengthen university competitiveness.

Universities across East Asia are looking abroad for students, but experts caution that international recruitment alone cannot solve the ageing or decreasing population problems.

“International student recruitment can offset demographic decline to some extent, but only within limited bounds,” says Professor Jung. Japan and South Korea have traditionally relied heavily on Chinese students, but China’s own demographic transition means that the recruitment pool is beginning to shrink.

Hans de Wit, Professor Emeritus of the Practice and Distinguished Former Director at the Center for International Higher Education, Boston College, sees this as part of a wider global challenge.

“International recruitment of students and graduates becomes important, but it is not sufficient to compensate for the lack of local students and graduates, also because of competition for them,” Professor de Wit tells QS Insights.

Competition for international students is intensifying both within Asia and with traditional destinations such as the US, UK and Australia.

According to Professor Mok, countries and regions including Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and mainland China are investing heavily in attracting global talent. English-medium instruction, scholarships, research opportunities and post-study employment pathways are becoming important competitive advantages.

Japan is also expanding its efforts. Professor Yonezawa notes that leading institutions such as the University of Tokyo, Tohoku University and Waseda University have rapidly expanded English-medium programmes. Yet significant barriers remain.

“Japanese language skills are still required for employment at Japanese companies,” he says, limiting the appeal of some programmes to international students.

Professor Ota also cautions that attracting international students requires substantial resources. “Recruiting international students and supporting those already enrolled require a significant upfront investment,” he says. Universities facing enrolment problems lack sufficient financial resources to make such an investment.

There are additional concerns about quality. Professor Jung warns that as international students become an increasingly important source of tuition revenue, some institutions may prioritise enrolment numbers over academic preparation and language proficiency, creating challenges for both students and universities.

At the same time, China is emerging as an increasingly attractive regional destination. Professor Mok expects growing numbers of students from India, Southeast Asia and Central Asia to consider studying in China and Hong Kong as economic and educational ties deepen across the region.

Gauri Kohli specialises in writing and reporting on higher education news, including analysis on higher education trends, policies and the edtech sector. Her writing focuses on international education, study abroad, student recruitment trends and policies, with focus on India as a market. She has also covered workplace and hiring trends, corporate practices, work-life features, startup trends and developments, real estate for leading publications and media houses in India and abroad for the last 18 years, including Hindustan Times, a leading national daily newspaper in India.